Problem 3.5 • Given symptoms, which disease is most likely? (Multiple diseases)
🏥 Diseases & Prevalence
🦠
Disease A
Prevalence
1.0%
P(S₁|A)
90%
P(S₂|A)
70%
🧬
Disease B
Prevalence
0.5%
P(S₁|B)
60%
P(S₂|B)
95%
💊
Disease C
Prevalence
2.0%
P(S₁|C)
40%
P(S₂|C)
30%
🩺 Observed Symptoms
📊 Posterior Probabilities
Most Likely Diagnosis
Disease A
75.2% confidence
📐 Bayes for Multiple Hypotheses
P(Dᵢ|S₁,S₂) ∝
P(S₁|Dᵢ)·P(S₂|Dᵢ)·P(Dᵢ)
Assuming symptoms are conditionally independent given disease.